Independent · non-commercial · publishes on a quarterly cycle|Current cycle 2026 Q3
Compound Evidence InstituteEvidence synthesis · established 2023Graded assessments of compounds, trials, methods and supply
Document set current to 30 July 2026
Compound monograph · §3

Liraglutide — clinical evidence

Assessed outcomes with certainty ratings, contributing trials and the reasoning for each rating.

Document identifier
CEI-MN-007/3
Series
Compound monograph
Version
3.3
Published
27 Nov 2023
Last reviewed
27 Aug 2024
Next review
27 Aug 2026
Identifier
10.71829/cei.mono.7
Certainty
High
Cycle
2023 Q4

§3Clinical evidence

Assessed outcomes for LiraglutidePoint estimates with confidence intervals for each contributing study, plotted against the line of no effect.0.00.20.40.60.81.0Standardised direction and relative magnitude of the recorded effectIndicationEffect as recordedCardiovascular1 trial · HighMACE hazard ratio 0.87 in type 2…Obesity2 trials · High−8.0 % body weight at 56 weeks with 3.0…Type 2 diabetes2 trials · High−1.1 to −1.5 % HbA1c at 26 weeks with…Type 1 diabetes (adjunct)2 trials · ModerateHbA1c reduction of approximately 0.2 %…Adolescent obesity1 trial · ModerateBMI z-score reduction of 0.22 versus…Sleep apnoea1 trial · ModerateApnoea–hypopnoea index reduced by 12.2…Prediabetes1 trial · ModerateTime to onset of type 2 diabetes over…
Moderate or high certaintyLow or very low certainty
Figure 3. Illustrative. Assessed outcomes plotted on a common standardised axis so that direction and relative magnitude can be compared at a glance. The estimates are not on a common natural scale and the intervals are the Institute's standardised representation of the reported precision, not the published confidence intervals. Published intervals appear in the per-indication extracts and in the text below.

§3.1Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk reduction

Anchor outcome. Three-point major adverse cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke).

Effect as recorded. MACE hazard ratio 0.87 in type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk; HR 0.87 (95 % CI 0.78 to 0.97); 13.0 % versus 14.9 % over median 3.8 years.[1,2]

Certainty. High certainty Event-driven with independent adjudication; 9,340 participants.

Contributing trials. LEADER. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk reduction · Indication assessment

§3.2Obesity and overweight in adults

Anchor outcome. Percentage change in body weight from baseline.

Effect as recorded. −8.0 % body weight at 56 weeks with 3.0 mg versus −2.6 % with placebo; estimated difference −5.4 percentage points (95 % CI −5.8 to −5.0).[2,3]

Certainty. High certainty Consistent across the SCALE programme. Inferior to semaglutide 2.4 mg in a direct comparison (STEP 8).

Contributing trials. SCALE-OBESITY · STEP-8. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for obesity and overweight in adults · Indication assessment

§3.3Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Anchor outcome. Change in HbA1c (%, mmol/mol).

Effect as recorded. −1.1 to −1.5 % HbA1c at 26 weeks with 1.8 mg; LEAD-6 difference versus exenatide twice daily −0.33 % (95 % CI −0.47 to −0.18).[3,4]

Certainty. High certainty Large and reproducible.

Contributing trials. LEAD-6 · LEADER. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for type 2 diabetes mellitus · Indication assessment

§3.4Adjunctive therapy in type 1 diabetes

Anchor outcome. Change in HbA1c.

Effect as recorded. HbA1c reduction of approximately 0.2 % with increased hypoglycaemia and hyperketonaemia; small effect, adverse safety trade-off.[4,5]

Certainty. Moderate certainty The Institute records this as a programme in which a statistically detectable benefit was judged not to justify the safety signal, and no approval followed.

Contributing trials. ADJUNCT-ONE · ADJUNCT-TWO. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for adjunctive therapy in type 1 diabetes · Indication assessment

§3.5Obesity in children and adolescents

Anchor outcome. Change in BMI (%, absolute, z-score).

Effect as recorded. BMI z-score reduction of 0.22 versus 0.01 with placebo at 56 weeks; estimated difference −0.22 (95 % CI −0.37 to −0.08).[5,6]

Certainty. Moderate certainty Smaller effect than semaglutide in an equivalent population.

Contributing trials. SCALE-TEENS. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for obesity in children and adolescents · Indication assessment

§3.6Obstructive sleep apnoea with obesity

Anchor outcome. Change in apnoea–hypopnoea index (events/hour).

Effect as recorded. Apnoea–hypopnoea index reduced by 12.2 events/hour versus 6.1 with placebo at 32 weeks; estimated difference −6.1 events/hour (95 % CI −11.0 to −1.2).[6,7]

Certainty. Moderate certainty Imprecise; substantially smaller effect than reported for tirzepatide.

Contributing trials. SCALE-SLEEP-APNOEA. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for obstructive sleep apnoea with obesity · Indication assessment

§3.7Prediabetes and progression to type 2 diabetes

Anchor outcome. Incident type 2 diabetes.

Effect as recorded. Time to onset of type 2 diabetes over 160 weeks: hazard ratio 0.21; HR 0.21 (95 % CI 0.13 to 0.34).[7,8]

Certainty. Moderate certainty Downgraded for the confounding effect of treatment on the diagnostic measure itself.

Contributing trials. SCALE-PREDIABETES. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for prediabetes and progression to type 2 diabetes · Indication assessment

References cited on this page

References are numbered in order of first citation in this document. Each superscript in the text links to its entry below.

  1. Pi-Sunyer X, Astrup A, Fujioka K, Greenway F, Halpern A, Krempf M, Lau DCW, le Roux CW, Violante Ortiz R, Jensen CB, Wilding JPH. A randomized, controlled trial of 3.0 mg of liraglutide in weight management. New England Journal of Medicine 2015;373(1):11–22. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1411892 · PMID 26132939
  2. Marso SP, Daniels GH, Brown-Frandsen K, Kristensen P, Mann JFE, Nauck MA, Nissen SE, Pocock S, Poulter NR, Ravn LS, Steinberg WM, Stockner M, Zinman B, Bergenstal RM, Buse JB. Liraglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes. New England Journal of Medicine 2016;375(4):311–322. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1603827 · PMID 27295427
  3. Buse JB, Rosenstock J, Sesti G, Schmidt WE, Montanya E, Brett JH, Zychma M, Blonde L. Liraglutide once a day versus exenatide twice a day for type 2 diabetes: a 26-week randomised, parallel-group, multinational, open-label trial (LEAD-6). The Lancet 2009;374(9683):39–47. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60659-0 · PMID 19515413
  4. Knudsen LB, Nielsen PF, Huusfeldt PO, Johansen NL, Madsen K, Pedersen FZ, Thøgersen H, Wilken M, Agersø H. Potent derivatives of glucagon-like peptide-1 with pharmacokinetic properties suitable for once daily administration. Journal of Medicinal Chemistry 2000;43(9):1664–1669. doi:10.1021/jm9909645 · PMID 10794683
  5. Rubino DM, Greenway FL, Khalid U, O’Neil PM, Rosenstock J, Sørrig R, Wadden TA, Wizert A, Garvey WT. Effect of weekly subcutaneous semaglutide vs daily liraglutide on body weight in adults with overweight or obesity without diabetes: the STEP 8 randomized clinical trial. JAMA 2022;327(2):138–150. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.23619 · PMID 35015037
  6. Drucker DJ. Mechanisms of action and therapeutic application of glucagon-like peptide-1. Cell Metabolism 2018;27(4):740–756. doi:10.1016/j.cmet.2018.03.001 · PMID 29617641
  7. United States Food and Drug Administration. WEGOVY (semaglutide) injection, for subcutaneous use — Highlights of Prescribing Information. FDA Approved Labeling 2024;Reference ID revision 01/2024. identifier not held by the Institute
  8. Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. GLP-1 receptor agonists: reminder of the risk of hypoglycaemia and of use only for licensed indications. MHRA Drug Safety Update 2023;17(3). identifier not held by the Institute

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