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Compound Evidence InstituteEvidence synthesis · established 2023Graded assessments of compounds, trials, methods and supply
Document set current to 30 July 2026
Trial abstract · §3

HARMONY-OUTCOMES — results

Primary endpoint, absolute and relative effect where derivable, and harms as reported.

Document identifier
CEI-TR-0095/3
Series
Trial abstract
Version
1.2
Published
22 Mar 2023
Last reviewed
22 Nov 2023
Next review
22 Nov 2025
Identifier
10.71829/cei.trial.95
Certainty
Moderate
Cycle
2023 Q1
Phase
Phase 3
Status
Reported

§3Results

§3.1Primary endpoint

Table 3. Primary endpoint as reported.

EndpointResult as reportedCertainty
Time to first occurrence of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or strokeHazard ratio 0.78 (95 % CI 0.68 to 0.90)Moderate
Reproduced from the published report. Where the report states a confidence interval the Institute reproduces it; where it does not, none is constructed.

§3.2Endpoint hierarchy

Cumulative incidence of the primary endpointCumulative event incidence in each randomised arm over the follow-up period.0246051015Months since randomisationCumulative incidence (%)DulaglutideComparator
Figure 1. Illustrative. Cumulative incidence of the primary composite, reconstructed by the Institute from the reported hazard ratio and a comparator event rate typical of the enrolled risk profile. The curves are not digitised from the published figure. They are published to convey the shape of event accrual and the point at which the arms separate, and no incidence should be read off them.

Table 4. Relative and absolute effect. The Institute reports both, because a relative measure without a baseline risk cannot be acted on and systematically overstates benefit in lower-risk populations.

MeasureValueNote
Hazard ratio as reported0.78Reproduced from the published report.
Comparator event rate, %5.0Illustrative. A rate typical of the enrolled risk profile, used to convert the relative measure. Not a published figure.
Absolute risk difference, pp1.10Illustrative. Computed from the two rows above.
Number needed to treat91Illustrative. For the stated duration, at the comparator rate assumed above. Rises sharply as baseline risk falls.
Three of the four rows are Institute constructions and are marked. Only the hazard ratio is a published figure.

§3.3Harms as reported

Table 5. Adverse events for Dulaglutide from the safety tables the Institute holds for this compound. Where a row names a different trial as its source, the figure is from that trial and not from this one.

EventActive, %Comparator, %Source trial
Nausea12.45.3AWARD programme pooled (1.5 mg)
Diarrhoea8.95.0AWARD pooled
Vomiting6.02.3AWARD pooled
Abdominal pain6.54.7AWARD pooled
Decreased appetite4.91.6AWARD pooled
Acute pancreatitis0.10.1REWIND
Discontinuation for adverse events5.12.9AWARD pooled
Antibody formation1.6AWARD pooled; neutralising antibodies rare
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