Evidence synthesis · §4
Weight change after discontinuation of an incretin receptor agonist — summary of findings
Outcome-by-outcome summary with effect, certainty and the reason for each downgrade.
§4Summary of findings
§4.1Summary of findings
Table 7. Summary of findings for Weight change after discontinuation of an incretin receptor agonist.
| Outcome | Participants (studies) | Effect as reported | Certainty | Reason for downgrade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percentage change in body weight from baselineThe outcome the Institute designates as anchor for this indication. | 29,795 (17) | Moderate certainty evidence from two randomised withdrawal trials indicates that a substantial proportion of the weight lost during treatment is… | Moderate | risk of bias |
| Discontinuation for adverse eventsReported as a summary-of-findings row rather than in a tolerability annex, following a public submission. | 29,038 (15) | Reported per contributing trial; see the included-studies table | Moderate | inconsistency |
| Serious adverse eventsEvent counts are low; the estimate is imprecise by construction. | 28,204 (17) | Reported per contributing trial; see the included-studies table | Low | inconsistency, publication bias |
| Any adverse eventAscertained by spontaneous report in the contributing trials. | 27,695 (16) | Reported per contributing trial; see the included-studies table | Low | risk of bias, indirectness |
| Proportion achieving ≥5 %, ≥10 %, ≥15 % and ≥20 % weight reductionA secondary outcome for this indication. Its hierarchical position within each contributing trial is recorded on that trial's abstract where the Institute holds it. | 19,139 (16) | Reported as a secondary outcome in a subset of contributing trials | Low | risk of bias |
| Change in waist circumferenceA secondary outcome for this indication. Its hierarchical position within each contributing trial is recorded on that trial's abstract where the Institute holds it. | 25,667 (16) | Reported as a secondary outcome in a subset of contributing trials | Low | indirectness, imprecision |
| Certainty ratings describe confidence in the effect estimate for the stated outcome. They are not recommendations and do not transfer between outcomes. | ||||
§4.2Forest plot
Study estimatePooled estimate
§4.3Certainty assessment for the anchor outcome
Table 8. Reasoning recorded against each certainty domain for the anchor outcome.
| Domain | Rating | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Risk of bias | Serious | Differential attrition exceeded the pre-specified threshold in one arm. |
| Inconsistency | No concern | No serious concern identified in this domain. |
| Indirectness | No concern | No serious concern identified in this domain. |
| Imprecision | No concern | No serious concern identified in this domain. |
| Publication bias | No concern | No serious concern identified in this domain. |
| Overall: Moderate certainty. The true effect is likely to be close to the estimate, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different. Further research is likely to have an important impact on confidence in the estimate. | ||
References cited on this page
References are numbered in order of first citation in this document. Each superscript in the text links to its entry below.
- Rubino D, Abrahamsson N, Davies M, Hesse D, Greenway FL, Jensen C, Lingvay I, Mosenzon O, Rosenstock J, Rubio MA, Rudofsky G, Tadayon S, Wadden TA, Dicker D. Effect of continued weekly subcutaneous semaglutide vs placebo on weight loss maintenance in adults with overweight or obesity: the STEP 4 randomized clinical trial. JAMA 2021;325(14):1414–1425. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.3224 · PMID 33755728
Identifiers are reproduced only where the Institute holds them. Where a digital object identifier or PubMed identifier is not shown, the Institute has recorded the journal and year and has not constructed an identifier.
Compound Evidence Institute · CEI-ES-004/4 · https://compoundevidence.com/syntheses/weight-regain-after-discontinuation/summary-of-findings/ · retrieved 30 July 2026