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Document set current to 30 July 2026
Evidence synthesis · Intervention review

Semaglutide in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk reduction: effect on the anchor outcome

In the population defined for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk reduction, what is the effect of Semaglutide compared with the comparator used in its contributing trials on the anchor outcome for this indication?

Document identifier
CEI-ES-071
Series
Evidence synthesis
Version
3.0
Published
04 Nov 2025
Last reviewed
04 Jul 2026
Next review
04 Jan 2028
Identifier
10.71829/cei.syn.71
Certainty
High
Cycle
2025 Q4
Review type
Intervention review
Search executed
21 Jul 2025

Templated review frame. This review question was generated by crossing an indication with a compound for which contributing trials exist. Its prose frame is templated and is shared with other questions of the same shape. Its included studies, its summary of findings and its certainty rating are computed from the underlying records and are not templated. The Institute publishes these questions because the alternative is to leave a question the document set can answer unanswered, and it labels them because the alternative is to present a templated frame as an authored one.

§1Abstract

§1.1Review question

In the population defined for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk reduction, what is the effect of Semaglutide compared with the comparator used in its contributing trials on the anchor outcome for this indication?

§1.2PICO frame

Table 1. The registered PICO frame. Any change made after protocol registration is recorded in the amendment log at §5 and is identified there as post hoc.

ElementAs registered
PopulationEstablished atherosclerotic disease of the coronary, cerebral or peripheral arterial beds, or a risk profile sufficient for enrolment in a cardiovascular outcome trial.
InterventionSemaglutide administered as subcutaneous once weekly; oral once daily with a permeation enhancer (see separate monograph).
ComparatorThe comparator used in each contributing trial, reported per trial rather than pooled across comparator types.
OutcomesAnchor outcome for this indication: Three-point major adverse cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke). Additional outcomes: Cardiovascular death; All-cause death; Hospitalisation for heart failure.

§1.3Method in brief

A review of the effects of an intervention on pre-specified outcomes, with a quantitative synthesis where the contributing studies are sufficiently similar. The protocol was registered with the Institute's secretariat before the search was executed. The search was run on 21 July 2025 across 8 sources and is reproduced in full at §2. Screening, extraction and certainty assessment were performed independently by two members of the secretariat with disagreement resolved by a third.[1,2]

§1.4Conclusion

High certainty evidence from 2 contributing trials bears on the effect of Semaglutide on the anchor outcome for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk reduction. The estimate the Institute carries in the monograph is: Three-point MACE hazard ratio 0.80 in adults with overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular disease without diabetes. SELECT randomised 17,604 participants and was event-driven with independent adjudication. The Institute grades event reduction as high certainty in the enrolled population and does not extrapolate to primary prevention.

The conclusion rests on 2 contributing studies, listed with their extracted data at §3 and summarised outcome by outcome at §4.

§1.5Limitations

References cited on this page

References are numbered in order of first citation in this document. Each superscript in the text links to its entry below.

  1. Wilding JPH, Batterham RL, Calanna S, Davies M, Van Gaal LF, Lingvay I, McGowan BM, Rosenstock J, Tran MTD, Wadden TA, Wharton S, Yokote K, Zeuthen N, Kushner RF. Once-weekly semaglutide in adults with overweight or obesity. New England Journal of Medicine 2021;384(11):989–1002. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2032183 · PMID 33567185
  2. Davies M, Færch L, Jeppesen OK, Pakseresht A, Pedersen SD, Perreault L, Rosenstock J, Shimomura I, Viljoen A, Wadden TA, Lingvay I. Semaglutide 2·4 mg once a week in adults with overweight or obesity, and type 2 diabetes (STEP 2): a randomised, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. The Lancet 2021;397(10278):971–984. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00213-0 · PMID 33667417

Identifiers are reproduced only where the Institute holds them. Where a digital object identifier or PubMed identifier is not shown, the Institute has recorded the journal and year and has not constructed an identifier.

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