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Compound Evidence InstituteEvidence synthesis · established 2023Graded assessments of compounds, trials, methods and supply
Document set current to 30 July 2026
Evidence synthesis · Safety review

Acute pancreatitis with incretin-based therapies

Do incretin-based therapies increase the incidence of acute pancreatitis?

Document identifier
CEI-ES-025
Series
Evidence synthesis
Version
1.2
Published
22 Nov 2025
Last reviewed
22 Mar 2026
Next review
22 Sep 2027
Identifier
10.71829/cei.syn.25
Certainty
Moderate
Cycle
2025 Q4
Review type
Safety review
Search executed
04 Sep 2025

§1Abstract

§1.1Review question

Do incretin-based therapies increase the incidence of acute pancreatitis?

§1.2PICO frame

Table 1. The registered PICO frame. Any change made after protocol registration is recorded in the amendment log at §5 and is identified there as post hoc.

ElementAs registered
PopulationAdults exposed to an incretin-based therapy in a randomised trial or a controlled observational study.
InterventionAny incretin receptor agonist.
ComparatorPlacebo or an active comparator.
OutcomesAdjudicated acute pancreatitis; pancreatic enzyme elevation; pancreatic cancer.

§1.3Method in brief

A review of harms, in which the absence of an event in a trial of conventional size is treated as uninformative rather than as reassurance. The protocol was registered with the Institute's secretariat before the search was executed. The search was run on 4 September 2025 across 8 sources and is reproduced in full at §2. Screening, extraction and certainty assessment were performed independently by two members of the secretariat with disagreement resolved by a third.[1]

§1.4Conclusion

Moderate certainty evidence from the pooled cardiovascular outcome trials, in which pancreatitis was adjudicated and exposure was long, does not indicate a materially increased incidence. Observational analyses have reported associations of varying magnitude and are subject to confounding by indication and by the shared risk factors of obesity and gallstone disease. The Institute records that the trial evidence is more informative than the observational evidence for this question because the exposure is randomised, and that the trials were not powered for it.

The conclusion rests on 24 contributing studies, listed with their extracted data at §3 and summarised outcome by outcome at §4.

§1.5Limitations

§1.6Consultation

This review was released for public comment before ratification. Draft synthesis: Acute pancreatitis with incretin-based therapies received 10 submissions. Amendments arising are recorded in the amendment log and are traceable to a numbered submission.

References cited on this page

References are numbered in order of first citation in this document. Each superscript in the text links to its entry below.

  1. Sodhi M, Rezaeianzadeh R, Kezouh A, Etminan M. Risk of gastrointestinal adverse events associated with glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for weight loss. JAMA 2023;330(18):1795–1797. doi:10.1001/jama.2023.19574 · PMID 37796527

Identifiers are reproduced only where the Institute holds them. Where a digital object identifier or PubMed identifier is not shown, the Institute has recorded the journal and year and has not constructed an identifier.

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