Evidence synthesis · §4
Transitivity in the incretin network — summary of findings
Outcome-by-outcome summary with effect, certainty and the reason for each downgrade.
§4Summary of findings
§4.1Summary of findings
Table 7. Summary of findings for Transitivity in the incretin network.
| Outcome | Participants (studies) | Effect as reported | Certainty | Reason for downgrade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percentage change in body weight from baselineThe outcome the Institute designates as anchor for this indication. | 41,192 (24) | Moderate certainty evidence indicates that the transitivity assumption is only partially satisfied | Moderate | imprecision |
| Discontinuation for adverse eventsReported as a summary-of-findings row rather than in a tolerability annex, following a public submission. | 32,609 (22) | Reported per contributing trial; see the included-studies table | Moderate | risk of bias |
| Serious adverse eventsEvent counts are low; the estimate is imprecise by construction. | 34,474 (22) | Reported per contributing trial; see the included-studies table | Low | risk of bias, publication bias |
| Any adverse eventAscertained by spontaneous report in the contributing trials. | 30,578 (22) | Reported per contributing trial; see the included-studies table | Low | imprecision, publication bias |
| Proportion achieving ≥5 %, ≥10 %, ≥15 % and ≥20 % weight reductionA secondary outcome for this indication. Its hierarchical position within each contributing trial is recorded on that trial's abstract where the Institute holds it. | 34,337 (23) | Reported as a secondary outcome in a subset of contributing trials | Low | inconsistency, imprecision |
| Change in waist circumferenceA secondary outcome for this indication. Its hierarchical position within each contributing trial is recorded on that trial's abstract where the Institute holds it. | 36,111 (23) | Reported as a secondary outcome in a subset of contributing trials | Low | inconsistency |
| Certainty ratings describe confidence in the effect estimate for the stated outcome. They are not recommendations and do not transfer between outcomes. | ||||
§4.2Forest plot
Study estimatePooled estimate
§4.3Certainty assessment for the anchor outcome
Table 8. Reasoning recorded against each certainty domain for the anchor outcome.
| Domain | Rating | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Risk of bias | No concern | No serious concern identified in this domain. |
| Inconsistency | No concern | No serious concern identified in this domain. |
| Indirectness | No concern | No serious concern identified in this domain. |
| Imprecision | Serious | The confidence interval spans values that would support different decisions. |
| Publication bias | No concern | No serious concern identified in this domain. |
| Overall: Moderate certainty. The true effect is likely to be close to the estimate, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different. Further research is likely to have an important impact on confidence in the estimate. | ||
Compound Evidence Institute · CEI-ES-036/4 · https://compoundevidence.com/syntheses/network-transitivity-incretins/summary-of-findings/ · retrieved 30 July 2026