Independent · non-commercial · publishes on a quarterly cycle|Current cycle 2026 Q3
Compound Evidence InstituteEvidence synthesis · established 2023Graded assessments of compounds, trials, methods and supply
Document set current to 30 July 2026
Compound monograph · §3

Semaglutide, oral — clinical evidence

Assessed outcomes with certainty ratings, contributing trials and the reasoning for each rating.

Document identifier
CEI-MN-002/3
Series
Compound monograph
Version
1.0
Published
28 Aug 2023
Last reviewed
28 Jun 2024
Next review
28 Jun 2026
Identifier
10.71829/cei.mono.2
Certainty
High
Cycle
2023 Q3

§3Clinical evidence

Assessed outcomes for Semaglutide, oralPoint estimates with confidence intervals for each contributing study, plotted against the line of no effect.0.00.20.40.60.81.0Standardised direction and relative magnitude of the recorded effectIndicationEffect as recordedType 2 diabetes2 trials · High−1.2 to −1.4 % HbA1c at 26 weeks with…Cardiovascular2 trials · ModerateMACE hazard ratio 0.79 (non-inferiority…Obesity1 trial · Moderate−15.1 % body weight with oral 50 mg at…
Moderate or high certaintyLow or very low certainty
Figure 3. Illustrative. Assessed outcomes plotted on a common standardised axis so that direction and relative magnitude can be compared at a glance. The estimates are not on a common natural scale and the intervals are the Institute's standardised representation of the reported precision, not the published confidence intervals. Published intervals appear in the per-indication extracts and in the text below.

§3.1Type 2 diabetes mellitus

Anchor outcome. Change in HbA1c (%, mmol/mol).

Effect as recorded. −1.2 to −1.4 % HbA1c at 26 weeks with 14 mg versus placebo; PIONEER 1 estimated difference −1.1 % (95 % CI −1.3 to −0.9) for 14 mg.[1,2]

Certainty. High certainty Ten-trial phase 3 programme with consistent dose-response.

Contributing trials. PIONEER-1 · PIONEER-6. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for type 2 diabetes mellitus · Indication assessment

§3.2Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk reduction

Anchor outcome. Three-point major adverse cardiovascular events (cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke).

Effect as recorded. MACE hazard ratio 0.79 (non-inferiority design) in PIONEER 6; 0.86 in the event-driven SOUL trial; PIONEER 6 HR 0.79 (95 % CI 0.57 to 1.11); SOUL HR 0.86 (95 % CI 0.77 to 0.96).[2,3]

Certainty. Moderate certainty PIONEER 6 was powered for non-inferiority only. SOUL provides the superiority result; the Institute grades moderate rather than high pending independent replication of the oral formulation result.

Contributing trials. PIONEER-6 · SOUL. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk reduction · Indication assessment

§3.3Obesity and overweight in adults

Anchor outcome. Percentage change in body weight from baseline.

Effect as recorded. −15.1 % body weight with oral 50 mg at 68 weeks versus −2.4 % with placebo; estimated difference −12.7 percentage points (95 % CI −14.2 to −11.3).[3,4]

Certainty. Moderate certainty The 50 mg obesity dose is a different formulation strength from the diabetes product; certainty is downgraded one level for single-trial evidence at that dose.

Contributing trials. OASIS-1. Full structured abstracts are published for each.

Full evidence extract for obesity and overweight in adults · Indication assessment

References cited on this page

References are numbered in order of first citation in this document. Each superscript in the text links to its entry below.

  1. Husain M, Birkenfeld AL, Donsmark M, Dungan K, Eliaschewitz FG, Franco DR, Jeppesen OK, Lingvay I, Mosenzon O, Pedersen SD, Tack CJ, Thomsen M, Vilsbøll T, Warren ML, Bain SC. Oral semaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. New England Journal of Medicine 2019;381(9):841–851. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1901118 · PMID 31185157
  2. Aroda VR, Rosenstock J, Terauchi Y, Altuntas Y, Lalic NM, Morales Villegas EC, Jeppesen OK, Christiansen E, Hertz CL, Haluzík M. PIONEER 1: randomized clinical trial of the efficacy and safety of oral semaglutide monotherapy in comparison with placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care 2019;42(9):1724–1732. doi:10.2337/dc19-0749 · PMID 31186300
  3. Knop FK, Aroda VR, do Vale RD, Holst-Hansen T, Laursen PN, Rosenstock J, Rubino DM, Garvey WT. Oral semaglutide 50 mg taken once per day in adults with overweight or obesity (OASIS 1): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. The Lancet 2023;402(10403):705–719. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01185-6 · PMID 37364590
  4. McGuire DK, Marso SP, Deanfield JE, Hovingh GK, Sattar N, Kahn SE, Hardt-Lindberg S, Rasmussen S, Ripa MS, Wolski K, Nissen SE, Lincoff AM. Oral semaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk type 2 diabetes (SOUL): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. New England Journal of Medicine 2025;392(22):2001–2012. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2501006

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